Points to ponder

There is a saying in Malayalam which translates to “you take it out on your mother when you lose in the marketplace”. The recent flare ups on the line of  control indicate that Pakistan, after losing out to world opinion in regard to its intention of a honest fight against terrorism, wants to take out the frustration on India…OK...what are mothers for – after all Pakistan is only an errant child from a pan Indian point of view! (That is, if we set aside polity and politics for a moment).

 It is reported that ISI chief, Shujah Pasha said to the Pakistan parliament, in camera, that targets in India have been identified for retaliation in case India chose a clinical strike on targets in their country. On the face of it his statement does not mean much and India should not publicly react to a statement made in private, by a political and conventionally military non entity (except for terror acts). But it may be worth the while to examine the statement from the following angles!

1.    Does Shuja Pasha in his statements, inadvertently admit that those terrorists and criminals wanted by India are hiding in Pakistan under the protection of the ISI? – India knows that and ISI knows that India knows!

 2.    ISI is yet ready to use terrorists to strike at targets within India – with what? Terrorism is the only strategic and tactical weapon Pakistan can now employ against India, with their nuclear arsenal totally in control of the USA. In other words US complicity will be implicit in Pakistan’s use of a nuclear weapon.

The stakes in the region are high. India will be better served looking beyond Pakistan at Afghanistan. China is a looming threat to India in the region. India is better off than China in that it is a democracy. Militarily and economically China has an edge over India. With Pakistan as its ally it will try and dominate Af-Pak region once the USA pulls out from there. As an Indian, I feel vulnerable when our politicians exhibit a pathetic finality in treating elections as the end all of democracy and governance. I do not see any well defined strategy for India, let alone implementation steps, beyond clichés like ‘historical……’, ‘traditional…..’ et al. History and tradition will take us only thus far.

It is time India shed petty politics and seriously look beyond the immediate neighbours. I strongly feel a section of our military should be a permanent fixture in formulating National security policies and foreign policies. For instance, may be symbolical in the least, a senior Military General or equivalent should have accompanied the PM to Afghanistan during his recent visit to that country.

The bogey of Osama and an illusion

Let us assume that the USA eliminated Bin Laden deep inside Pakistan in operation ‘Geronimo’ on May Day this year. In its wake, the incident leaves more questions than answers. It was more of an intelligence operation than a military operation. At the individual level Bin Laden is not known to be a fighter like say Carlos the ‘Fox’. He was at best an ideologue and cash base, who spawned a network of terrorists across the world - Al Queda group and affiliates. The prolonged surveillance of the mansion he was ‘hiding’ in  (intriguingly known as the 'Waziristan Mansion') would have revealed he could not have housed a strong security force to defend him against an assault in there. Thus a CQB  to overpower Osama was never ever on the cards.

All the talks about what happened on that night and all what didn’t happen prior or later and being discussed ever since are missing one point. The whole drama of op ‘Geronimo’ staged or real or a mix of both is just symbolic. This symbolism is a win-win situation for all except the Pakistan military – yes internally the civil regime in Pakistan would also be happy to see their disobedient Army cringing and privately the PM Yousaf Raza Gilani would be daring Gen Khayani to clarify the Osama issue to the world!

Let us not get distracted by the drama of the events. The spent of billions of dollars and close to ten years to get this unmistakably tall Arab ( a rarity ) who was reportedly under periodic dialysis treatment for dysfunctional kidneys should reflect the inadequacies of the CIA and diplomatic poverty of the US. And finally the act has more relevance than the action. Years ago Osama himself had said his death will generate a thousand Osamas. Terror by vested interest will flourish. Pakistan with its widespread poverty, misrepresented Islam, lack of proper education among its people and a pliable state is an ideal breeding ground for terror. So it suits the elite military and the filthy rich aristocracy (Bhuttos, Shariefs et al) to roll in luxury and wealth at the cost of the proletariat.

The Islamic world is changing with a realization that fighting an incumbent, inefficient and authoritarian regime will bring prosperity rather than shadow boxing with the neighbours. It will take some more time for this to translate into action in Pakistan.

For the moment, nothing changes in the real world…and definitely not for India. We should continue to ignore Pakistan, engage Pakistanis and step up our vigil. In Pakistan there (were) are no individuals or organisations that can help in Nation building. The Salman Bashirs and the Khayanis are passé. The ‘Aman ki Aasha’ type of direct interaction with the people of Pakistan holds out better hope for peace in the region. India should support a Pakistan peoples’ non-violent revolution against oppression which could be outsourced to India for guidance. No weapons…just Satyagraha et al like what the Quaide Azam did decades ago. I can see the sneers...OK..but see the brighter side of it all too.....How do we know it won't work unless we try.